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Internet
business news and analysis by Dylan Tweney
| 25 October 1999 | |
Mail-slot marketingWill the postman be CARRYING A BAG FULL OF EMAIL someday? Maybe, if the U.S. Postal Service's plans come to fruition. Right now, for every piece of mail delivered by letter carrier in the U.S., three email messages are sent. That gap will only increase as people get more wired, write fewer letters, and -- most importantly -- receive fewer bills by so-called "snail mail." Already, according to reports, the U.S. Postal Service is anticipating the day when the amount of mail they deliver begins to decline, replaced by electronic messages [1]. One of the biggest drivers of this decline will be electronic bill presentment and payment. Everyone from banks and credit card companies to Intuit and Microsoft want to deliver your bills to you electronically, because it's cheaper than mailing paper -- and those who deliver the bills also get to deliver numerous lucrative direct marketing messages [2]. When was the last time you opened a credit card bill that didn't have a pile of glossy merchandise offers bundled in the envelope along with it? Electronic bills will likely be the same. That's not to say that physical mail will ever go away completely. In fact, the Post Office is trying to figure out what kind of meaningful role it can play in a wired world. One plan: A service for printing out your email and delivering it immediately, perhaps to recipients who don't have email (such as, for instance, your more Luddite friends or your technophobic grandmother) [3]. The Postal Service also plans to offer the electronic equivalent of registered mail -- a certified email message whose proof of delivery mechanism has some legal standing. Memo to the Postal Service: Delivering email messages to offline recipients is a good start, but why not go a step further? Give people with email accounts a "virtualizing" post office box. Any paper mail sent to that address would be scanned and uploaded to a secure, private site where the recipient could view it online -- or the scanned image could simply be emailed to the recipient. Paytrust [4], which I've been using happily for a month now, already does this with paper bills, and I can say that my peace of mind has greatly improved thanks to the service. With a two-way email / papermail service, the Post Office would become a kind of interface between cyberspace and the physical world. You could correspond with anyone in the world, offline or online, without regard to their location or access to the Internet. Related services might include the delivery of virtual checks (the Post Office could keep your signature on file, and print checks as you request them, a la PayTrust), automatic archiving of your email correspondence to paper records (for posterity-conscious novelists and presidents), electronic "return receipts" for physical mail, and more. [1] E-mail
use may force Postal Service cuts [2] Major
industry segments all want to own the customer [3] Letter
Writing [4] PayTrust Banner ads STILL AREN'T DEAD, despite the fact that I predicted their imminent demise a few weeks ago [5]. But it's not just me making this noise any more: Smart folks are starting to question the value of banner ads -- at least in their current form. A group of retailers at a conference called eRetailing99 were skeptical about the future of banners, according to a ZDNet report [6]. Sample quote: "The days of just doing a banner ad campaign are over," according to 800.com's Timothy Zuckert. The story continues: "That doesn't mean he intends to stop advertising online. But the promotions will be more targeted and take more advantage of the technology." Exactly: Banner ads right now are little more than virtual billboards. And the billboard economy, while it's good for a few billion dollars annually, is not any great shakes in the grand scheme of things. Online advertising can be so much more: Interactive, product-focused, content-centric (imagine an ad you actually *wanted* to read), and while we're at it, maybe in some form other than the size and shape of a mail slot. [5] Online
advertising: a $3 billion industry limping on its last legs [6] Banner
ads celebrate last birthday? RULE, BRITANNICA: The company whose name used to be synonymous with encyclopedias, back before Microsoft blanketed the earth with Encarta CDs, has finally decided to open its content up to the Internet, for free [7,8]. Now you can browse or search the entire Encyclopedia Britannica just by turning your browser towards www.britannica.com. Assuming you can get through -- there were some first-day slowdowns on the site, as it was deluged by eager browsers [9,10]. Once again, a content company has discovered there's no paying market for its product online. To make money, the makers of the language's best encyclopedia are being forced into the same boat as Netscape, Microsoft, the New York Times, and a host of others: Hawk ads and sell value-added services and upgrades. Now, if only Oxford University Press would come to the same conclusion and make the Oxford English Dictionary freely available online ... as someone who enjoys surfing the dictionary as much as surfing the Web, I'd probably never log off. [7] Encyclopaedia
Britannica launches free Web site [8] Britannica
Joins the Internet Age [9] Free
Britannica.com site shuts out some first-day surfers [10] Heavy
Traffic Crashes Britannica's Web Site Faithful READERS OF THE TWENEY REPORT: I'm leaving InfoWorld, and this week's "Net Prophet" column is the next-to-last one I'll write. I'm moving on to start up a new Web company, and while I can't tell you anything about it yet, I'll post updates to my Web site at www.tweney.com just as soon as I can. Other updates to the Tweney.com Web site, due this week: An archive of recent presentations I've given (at Fall Internet World and elsewhere), some samplings from my mailbag, and, if everything works out right, a forum where you can post public messages, gripes, complaints, kudos, or rants. Fans of the Tweney Report, never fear: I'll keep on publishing this newsletter on the same weekly schedule, only it won't include the InfoWorld column any more, of course. Also, this newsletter will no longer be republished as one of InfoWorld's email products, as it has been for the past few months. If you've been receiving the Tweney Report from InfoWorld (the version that is mailed from TweneyReport@mail.bdcimail2.com, with the subject line in all capital letters), and you want to continue receiving it after next week, just send a message to this address: You can always reach me personally at dylan@tweney.com, and I'll be happy to answer any questions I can. Missed my talk at Internet World? Don't worry -- you can still find out WHAT WON'T BE on the Web in 2004 by checking out the online version of my presentation [11], available in HTML (graphic and plain-text versions) and in PowerPoint. [11] The Web in 2004: What Won't Be NET
PROPHET: Video spam, anyone? Broadband may cause annoying side effects
WEB MARKETERS, gamers, and grandmothers everywhere are waiting with bated breath for high-bandwidth home Internet access to become commonplace. When it does, they'll be able to use the Net for multimedia advertisements, interactive virtual-reality games, and video chats with Junior on the weekends. But you'll have to forgive me if I'm less than excited about the coming era of broadband. ... click for more ... ~ Back issues ~Holiday spirit: HP learns the true meaning of E-Christmas; CompUSA shoots itself repeatedly in the foot; TicketMaster's thoughtful clarification on deep linking policy; billionaire poets; a flood of online shoppers may be disappointed (10.18.1999). Virtual bricks: AFL-CIO launches new Web site; traditional retailers jumping online; even virtual companies need bricks and mortar (10.11.1999). Billboard economy: EBay wades into deep-linking controversy; Net tax ban redux; Amazon.com's mega-mall; online advertising is on its last legs (10.4.1999). The whole blinkin' Tweney.com archive...
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